After performing your analysis, ask yourself what is the probability of your forecast actually happening? Then, you can calculate the probability linked to the odds offered by the bookmaker and compare it to the probability that you have calculated for the event.
If you think that Justine Henin has a 60% chance (equivalent to odds of 1.67) of winning against Amélie Mauresmo and odds of 2 (equivalent to a probability of 50%) are being offered by a bookmaker, then don’t hesitate! On the other hand, if the probability that you have calculated for an event is lower than that which is advertised by the bookmaker, don’t bet.
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