Find out which are the most important factors to analyse before forecasting the outcomes of matches in both women's (WTA) and men's (ATP) tournaments.
A tennis player's performance depends on many factors, some of which are more important than others, depending on the situation. A pre-match analysis will help you to improve your forecasts.
An amateur player would have little chance of winning against Roger Federer, even on one of the latter's rare "off" days. The respective level of each player is the most obvious factor to consider in your forecast.
Always keep up to date with the latest news and place your bet at the last moment. A last-minute injury could ruin all of your pre-match analysis.
Physical condition is especially important in Grand Slam tournaments. At 35 years of age, André Agassi finds it harder to play successive 5-set matches, which severely limits his chances of winning another Grand Slam trophy.
What motivates a tennis player to win a particular match? Financial rewards, ATP ranking points and the desire to win a tournament on home soil are all sources of motivation.
It is even more difficult to measure motivation when a particular player's level of motivation can fluctuate wildly. Marat Safin, for example, is capable of winning or losing against any other player on the Tour, depending on his level of motivation and concentration. Therefore, it seems more sensible to bet on him when he is the underdog rather than the favourite. Other players, such as Lleyton Hewitt, are always hyper-motivated, regardless of the competition.
Above all, it is the difference in motivation between the two players that counts. Pay particular attention to this factor and decide which player has the strongest desire to win the match. In addition, opt for players who are confident in their game. A bad run of results can often affect the general level of a player's game.
Consider each player's special qualities and his or her ability to play on each type of surface. Many players do not relish playing on their least favourite surfaces. This applies to clay court specialists when the grass court season arrives. However, watch out for modifications to the types of surfaces used in different tournaments each year, as well as the choice of balls.
Some players may not be suited to their opponent's style of play. Certain players tend to lose against others who are below them in the rankings because they find it hard to cope with their playing style. Fabrice Santoro has won 7 of his 9 matches against Marat Safin!
Similarly, before betting on the winner of a tournament, look at the player's previous results in the same tournament. Certain players have a habit of performing well in tournaments leading up to Grand Slam events. Each year, they are touted as possible winners of the tournament without ever carrying off the final victory.
After performing your analysis, ask yourself what is the probability of your forecast actually happening? Then, you can calculate the probability linked to the odds offered by the bookmaker and compare it to the probability that you have calculated for the event.
If you think that Justine Henin has a 60% chance (equivalent to odds of 1.67) of winning against Amélie Mauresmo and odds of 2 (equivalent to a probability of 50%) are being offered by a bookmaker, then don't hesitate! On the other hand, if the probability that you have calculated for an event is lower than that which is advertised by the bookmaker, don't bet.
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