Once you’ve studied all of these factors, ask yourself the following question: what are the chances of my forecast actually happening? Then, you can calculate the probability that is shown by the bookmaker’s odds and compare this with the probability that you have calculated for the event.
If you think that Everton has a 60% chance (equivalent to odds of 1.67) of winning at home to West Bromwich Albion, and odds of 1.9 (equivalent to a probability of 53%) are being offered by a bookmaker, then don’t hesitate! On the other hand, if the probability that you have calculated for an event is lower than that advertised by the bookmaker, don’t bet.
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